After the political bloodbath of the first two weeks of October, does Donald Trump still have any shot at winning? In short, his chances now are far worse than just two weeks ago. The business mogul has lost ground in almost every key battleground state. He currently trails Clinton in Florida by nearly 3 points, in Pennsylvania by over 8 points, and in Ohio by 1.6 points, where he recently held an over 3-point advantage. He's now losing to Clinton in Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado — all of which showed him leading in late September. In the national polls, Clinton has built on her margin, which now averages over 5%, and she currently has a 75-vote advantage in the electoral map.
The "October Surprise" both sides have long been bracing themselves for has ended up being a blitzkrieg of coordinated bombshells, the most damaging of which were launched at Trump. The Republican nominee spent most of September climbing in the polls and bringing the presidency within striking distance, but following his sub-par debate performance, ugly public feud with a former Miss Universe, the release of a devastating decade-old recording of him making lewd comments about women, and now a series of accusations of sexual harassment, he has lost significant ground to Clinton in both the national and state polls. Meanwhile, the new damning revelations about the Clinton campaign and the investigation into her emails have largely been ignored by the media and the wider public.
If the election were held today, Real Clear Politics' average of state polls, without any "tossup" states included, gives Clinton 256 electoral votes and Trump 181 — an over 60-vote improvement for Clinton since late September, now nearly matching her August count, when the polls showed her easily winning the required 270 electoral votes. Trump's total has actually improved over the last week by over 10 votes after being relatively flat in September. RCP's "No Tossup States" map shows Clinton trouncing Trump, 340 to 198. Below is RCP's electoral college map based on current state poll averages as of Oct. 14:
The "October Surprise" both sides have long been bracing themselves for has ended up being a blitzkrieg of coordinated bombshells, the most damaging of which were launched at Trump. The Republican nominee spent most of September climbing in the polls and bringing the presidency within striking distance, but following his sub-par debate performance, ugly public feud with a former Miss Universe, the release of a devastating decade-old recording of him making lewd comments about women, and now a series of accusations of sexual harassment, he has lost significant ground to Clinton in both the national and state polls. Meanwhile, the new damning revelations about the Clinton campaign and the investigation into her emails have largely been ignored by the media and the wider public.
If the election were held today, Real Clear Politics' average of state polls, without any "tossup" states included, gives Clinton 256 electoral votes and Trump 181 — an over 60-vote improvement for Clinton since late September, now nearly matching her August count, when the polls showed her easily winning the required 270 electoral votes. Trump's total has actually improved over the last week by over 10 votes after being relatively flat in September. RCP's "No Tossup States" map shows Clinton trouncing Trump, 340 to 198. Below is RCP's electoral college map based on current state poll averages as of Oct. 14:
As of Oct. 13, RCP's general election average for a four-candidate race—which includes the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein—shows Clinton with a 5.3% advantage (44.4 – 39.1), about 3-point improvement since late September. Six of the seven featured polls show Clinton ahead; her largest lead 9 points. Trump leads in the Rasmussen survey by 2 points.
As of Oct. 13, RCP's head-to-head survey average shows Clinton holding a 6.7-point lead (48 to 41.4), up about 4% since late September. Clinton currently leads in seven of RCP's eight featured polls, her largest lead 11 points. She is tied with Trump in the LA Times/USC tracking poll, which has consistently shown more favorable numbers for Trump than other polls, a result the pollsters attribute to the survey including a "bloc of disaffected [Trump] voters" ignored by other polls.
Clinton, who once held an 11-point lead by average in late March, saw her advantage evaporate over the next four months. After dramatic movement for Trump in late May, including a brief national lead following the Republican National Convention and the FBI's damaging report on Clinton's private email server, the two candidates were deadlocked at 44.3% on July 29, the day after the Democratic National Convention. Over the next three weeks, however, Clinton built an 8-point lead nationally. In late August, Clinton's lead began to slip as Trump made a series of smart political moves—including visiting Louisiana in the aftermath of the flooding, meeting with the president of Mexico, and giving a number of strong policy speeches—while Clinton appeared to be bunkering down amid more bad headlines about the Clinton Foundation, her private email server, and her continued health problems. Clinton's lead, which hovered at around 2 points, began to climb after the first debate, with Trump's numbers dropping sharply after the release of the crass 2005 recording on Oct. 7.
FAVORABILITY & BETTING ODDS
Both candidates have been polling at higher negatives than any previous two presidential frontrunners, even during times when one candidate has experienced positive movement. Clinton's favorability by average currently sits at -9.2 points, while Trump's favorability is 13.8 points worse at -23 (his worse rating in over a month). The betting odds for the two candidates have begun to widen in recent weeks to the advantage of Clinton, who is currently favored 86% to 14% (a 10+-point improvement for the Democrat since late September).
While national polls and favorability ratings are important indicators of the overall popularity of candidates, the state-by-state polls are, of course, what really matters, particularly in the key swing states (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) and battleground states, like Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina, where the presidency will ultimately be decided. Below are the most recent polling numbers for 16 battleground states.
FLORIDA
In Florida, as of Oct. 11, RCP's poll average finds Clinton ahead by around 3 points. In a four-way contest, Clinton holds a 2.7% lead (45.1% to 42.4%). The results of the two-way polls show a slightly larger gap: 3.2% (46.6% to 43.4%). The two candidates were tied in late September. Clinton led the state by over 4% in mid-August.
OHIO
In Ohio, as of Oct. 12, Clinton has taken the lead over Trump. In a four-way race, the Democrat leads by 1.6% (44 – 42.4) and by a 1.8% margin in the head-to-head surveys (45.6 – 43.8). Trump held an over 3-point lead in the first week of October, while Clinton led by 5 points in late August.
PENNSYLVANIA
In Pennsylvania, as of Oct. 11, Clinton holds an 8.4-point lead in a four-way contest (47.2 – 38.8), a 6-point improvement since late September. Head-to-head surveys show her with a similar advantage: 8.2% (48.5 – 40.3). After losing ground to Trump significantly in September, Clinton has now regained the commanding lead she held in mid-August.
OTHER BATTLEGROUND STATES
Below are thirteen other battleground states ranked from narrowest to widest margins (numbers based on RCP’s averages as of Oct. 14 of the most current surveys). Trump currently leads in only four of the thirteen states (at the end of September, he lead in seven). In September, Trump managed to flip North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado, but in recent weeks Clinton has regained the advantage in all three — with her margins growing. Last month, Trump pulled away in Georgia, Missouri and Iowa, all of which were tight in August, though his lead has recently diminished in Iowa. Clinton, meanwhile, now has an over 4-point advantage in six of the battleground states below.
ARIZONA: Trump +1 (42 – 41)
NEVADA: Clinton +1.4 (43.2 – 41.8)
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton +2.9 (45 – 42.1)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Clinton +3.6 (43.3 – 39.7)
IOWA: Trump +3.7 (41.7 – 38)
MINNESOTA: Clinton +4.3 (44.3 – 40)
MAINE: Clinton +4.7 (40.8 – 37)
GEORGIA: Trump +5.5 (46 – 40.5)
VIRGINIA: Clinton +6.7 (44.5 – 37.8)
WISCONSIN: Clinton +6.7 (44.5 – 37.8)
MICHIGAN: Clinton +7 (44.3 – 37.3)
COLORADO: Clinton +7.3 (44.3 – 37)
MISSOURI: Trump +10.6 (47.3 – 36.7)
This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.
Who become the president of American will have big affect to United States' Marketing and many political in the next few years.
Both candidates have been polling at higher negatives than any previous two presidential frontrunners, even during times when one candidate has experienced positive movement. Clinton's favorability by average currently sits at -9.2 points, while Trump's favorability is 13.8 points worse at -23 (his worse rating in over a month). The betting odds for the two candidates have begun to widen in recent weeks to the advantage of Clinton, who is currently favored 86% to 14% (a 10+-point improvement for the Democrat since late September).
While national polls and favorability ratings are important indicators of the overall popularity of candidates, the state-by-state polls are, of course, what really matters, particularly in the key swing states (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) and battleground states, like Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina, where the presidency will ultimately be decided. Below are the most recent polling numbers for 16 battleground states.
FLORIDA
In Florida, as of Oct. 11, RCP's poll average finds Clinton ahead by around 3 points. In a four-way contest, Clinton holds a 2.7% lead (45.1% to 42.4%). The results of the two-way polls show a slightly larger gap: 3.2% (46.6% to 43.4%). The two candidates were tied in late September. Clinton led the state by over 4% in mid-August.
OHIO
In Ohio, as of Oct. 12, Clinton has taken the lead over Trump. In a four-way race, the Democrat leads by 1.6% (44 – 42.4) and by a 1.8% margin in the head-to-head surveys (45.6 – 43.8). Trump held an over 3-point lead in the first week of October, while Clinton led by 5 points in late August.
PENNSYLVANIA
In Pennsylvania, as of Oct. 11, Clinton holds an 8.4-point lead in a four-way contest (47.2 – 38.8), a 6-point improvement since late September. Head-to-head surveys show her with a similar advantage: 8.2% (48.5 – 40.3). After losing ground to Trump significantly in September, Clinton has now regained the commanding lead she held in mid-August.
OTHER BATTLEGROUND STATES
Below are thirteen other battleground states ranked from narrowest to widest margins (numbers based on RCP’s averages as of Oct. 14 of the most current surveys). Trump currently leads in only four of the thirteen states (at the end of September, he lead in seven). In September, Trump managed to flip North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado, but in recent weeks Clinton has regained the advantage in all three — with her margins growing. Last month, Trump pulled away in Georgia, Missouri and Iowa, all of which were tight in August, though his lead has recently diminished in Iowa. Clinton, meanwhile, now has an over 4-point advantage in six of the battleground states below.
ARIZONA: Trump +1 (42 – 41)
NEVADA: Clinton +1.4 (43.2 – 41.8)
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton +2.9 (45 – 42.1)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Clinton +3.6 (43.3 – 39.7)
IOWA: Trump +3.7 (41.7 – 38)
MINNESOTA: Clinton +4.3 (44.3 – 40)
MAINE: Clinton +4.7 (40.8 – 37)
GEORGIA: Trump +5.5 (46 – 40.5)
VIRGINIA: Clinton +6.7 (44.5 – 37.8)
WISCONSIN: Clinton +6.7 (44.5 – 37.8)
MICHIGAN: Clinton +7 (44.3 – 37.3)
COLORADO: Clinton +7.3 (44.3 – 37)
MISSOURI: Trump +10.6 (47.3 – 36.7)
This article has been updated to reflect the most recent survey data.
Who become the president of American will have big affect to United States' Marketing and many political in the next few years.